With the 250th July 4th is here I have decided to write a think piece to go along side my 250th video for America. The notion of a collapsing America is a topic of ongoing debate among scholars, politicians, and the general public. While some argue that the country is on the brink of collapse, others claim that it has already begun to recover from its various challenges such as the several economic recessions and depressions, and volatile political scopes of the two party system. This article aims to provide an examination of the factors that have contributed to the perceived decline of America, with a focus on its economic, political, and social aspects. While I am no expert nor am I 'Anti-America' I like to present this to you as a American that enjoys freedom, loves guns, drinks occasionally, and lives as off grid as possible away from as many people as possible.
One of the most significant concerns surrounding the collapse of America is its economic instability. The country's massive national debt, which has surpassed $39 trillion and counting, poses a substantial threat to America's financial future. The debt to GDP ratio has reached alarming levels, making it difficult for the government to manage its finances and invest in critical infrastructure projects. Yet we persist on funding projects that cater to a President's ego. Making war without much thought to the future or nation building. Or allowing Americans to be able to afford a general living.
The United State's economic rise was unprecedented, with its GDP growing from $400 billion in 1960 to over $22 trillion today. However, this growth has not been evenly distributed, leaving a significant portion of the population behind. The widening wealth gap between the rich and the poor has led to increased income inequality, social unrest, and a decline in the "American Dream". The country's addiction to fossil fuels has also taken a toll on its economy. Climate change, once considered a distant threat, has become an immediate reality, with devastating natural disasters and extreme weather events causing widespread destruction and displacement.
This drastic rise and collapse is nothing new in America, while we have had a history of historical rises and collapses, the highs are becoming higher and then lows are becoming lower while the frequency of which is becoming increasingly more volatile. Some major market downturns have been mild in the last 100 years, but the features of and fallout from carry over to following downturns.
The Panic of 1785 (1785–1788) Ended the business boom that followed the American Revolution. The causes of the crisis lay in the over expansion and debts incurred after American independence, a post war deflation, American manufacturers facing competition from their British counterparts, and lack of adequate credit and a sound currency. The downturn was exacerbated by the absence of any significant interstate trade. Other factors were Britain's refusal to conclude a commercial treaty, and actual and pending defaults among debtor groups. The panic among business and propertied groups led to the demand for a stronger federal government.
The Copper Panic of 1789 (1789–1793) Loss of confidence in copper coins due to debasement and counterfeiting led to commercial freeze up that halted the economy of several northern States and was not alleviated until the introduction of new paper money to restore confidence.
1815 - 1821 Depression (1815–1821) Shortly after the War of 1812 ended, the United States entered a period of financial panic as bank notes rapidly depreciated because of inflation following the war. The 1815 panic was followed by several years of mild depression, and then a major financial crisis, the Panic of 1819, which featured widespread foreclosures, bank failures, unemployment, a collapse in real estate prices, and a slump in agriculture and manufacturing.
The 1839 Recession (1839-1843) This was one of the longest and deepest depressions of the 19th century, it was a period of pronounced deflation and massive defaults on debt. The Cleveland Trust Company Index showed the economy spent 68 months below its trend, and only nine months above it, and declined 34.3% during this depression.
The Long Depression (1873-1879) Economic problems in Europe prompted the failure of Jay Cooke and Company, the largest bank in the United States, which burst the post Civil War speculative bubble. The Coinage Act of 1873 also contributed by immediately depressing the price of silver, which hurt North American mining interests. The deflation and wage cuts of the era led to labor turmoil, such as the Great Railroad Strike of 1877. In 1879, the United States returned to the gold standard with the Specie Payment Resumption Act. This is the longest period of economic contraction recognized by the NBER.
The Great Depression (1929-1939) Historically, the most devastating economic collapse occurred during this period known as the Great Depression. It began with a stock market crash and quickly spread across economies worldwide due to interconnected financial systems. This collapse had severe impacts on unemployment, agriculture, industry production, and the overall standard of living. Policy changes during this time created harder regulations on the market such as the Glass–Steagall Act, the creation of Social Security, and the creation the the minimum wage.
The Great Recession (2007-2009) The recent economic downturn referred to as the Great Recession was triggered by a housing market crash that led to the failure of several financial institutions. This crisis affected not only America but also global economies due to interconnected merging in financial markets and investment patterns. Policy changes that moves forward during this time was the drastic changes make to Social Security policy and how 401k protections were placed into the market. During the sudden collapse the Federal Reserve overreached it's allotted spending limit of 1.2 Trillion dollars to bail out loan programs such as American International Group, Citibank, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. This caused a rampant increase in interest costs while many Americans lost jobs and homes, they would still receive dept repayment bills from these companies, digging already financially vulnerable Americans further into poverty.
The Covid 19 Pandemic (2019-2020) The global economic crisis caused by the Covid 19 pandemic has brought about significant changes in the way businesses operate, affecting employment, consumer spending, business investment, supply chains, and international trade. This downturn is characterized by lock-downs, travel restrictions, and reduced mobility which have further exacerbated the situation. This in turn signaled to the Fed to raise interest rates, funnel more capital into loan operations in a attempt to keep rates low but pushed for more aggressive loans at a lower rate.
Touching further on the subject of a living, the United States has struggled with stagnant wages, rising income inequality, and a declining manufacturing sector. This has led to a decline in consumer spending power, which is essential for economic growth. The country's reliance on foreign trade and investment also makes it vulnerable to global market fluctuations. We have seen this both in the present day with the current affairs in Iran, but also in the recent past with the complete stagnation of global trade due to Covid 19. America seemed to struggle with both compliance but also economic stability, causing fear and panic purchases, stressing an already slowed and vulnerable system.
Some common trends to look for to see future declines that signal to markets a collapse is near are the following.
Common recovery strategies while needed during the time of sudden economic downturn will often have ripples down the road leading to further stress on the financial system such as the following.
However due to the slow process of creating and changing policies. Often due to the partisan party system in America, some of these policies become lack luster or hard to later remove, causing good ideas to fester in a troubled political landscape.
As the United States continues to grapple with its complex system of government, a growing concern has emerged, political polarization. Recent polls have shown level of polarity not seen since the Civil War, the nation's increasingly divided landscape has led to sharp disagreements on key issues, hindering effective collaboration and decision making at all levels of government. The current political climate in America is marked by intense partisanship, gridlock, and polarization. The inability of lawmakers to work together effectively has resulted in a lack of meaningful legislation or a complete erosion of basic quality of life for the average American due to a overly competitive party line, which hinders the country's ability to address pressing issues such as healthcare, education, and national security. The erosion of trust in institutions, including the media, government, and corporations, has also contributed to the perception of political instability. This decline in trust has led to increased polarization, with individuals becoming more entrenched in their views and less willing to compromise or engage in constructive dialogue.
American politics have never been more divided, with deep seated partisan divisions threatening the very fabric of society. The rise of extremist ideologies on both sides of the aisle has led to increased violence, hate crimes, and social unrest. While these extreme opinions use to be something of a minority with little vocal room, with social media and algorithmic catering to extremism, the erosion of trust in institutions, including the media, government, and the judiciary, has further exacerbated the problem. The core reasons for this division have been linked to the following.
The rise of special interests - The increasing influence of money in politics has led to a proliferation of special interest groups, each with their own agendas and ideologies. This has created a sense of competition among groups vying for attention and influence. We have seen this most commonly in the Trump administration with DOGE but the precedent was always present.
The media landscape - The 24 hour news cycle and social media platforms have created an environment where information is disseminated rapidly and selectively, often polarizing audiences along partisan lines. While every main media outlet is owned by 1 of 3 massive conglomerates and most social media accounts are now bots ran by foreign or local governments.
Cultural and socio economic shifts - Changes in demographics, education levels, and economic conditions have led to shifts in voter behavior, further exacerbating polarization. As the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, we, by nature, will dig into thought beliefs for a level of comfort.
To move deeper into the fractured political climate, this also leads to complete societal fragmentation as another significant factor contributing to the collapse of America. The country's growing wealth gap, increasing racial tensions, and rising levels of inequality have all contributed to social unrest and division. The perversion of and the decline of traditional values such as family, community, and civic engagement has also had a profound impact on American society. As people become more isolated and disconnected from their communities, they are less likely to participate in the democratic process or engage in constructive dialogue with those who hold different views. While this may be interpreted as me supporting a traditional America where races stayed with their own or a classic nuclear family unit, it is not my intention with the phrase. What I want to mean is that we as Americans have lost what we cherished is classic American values, where families worked together regardless of opinion, that communities were proud of the people that lived there, to wanted to be involved in their communities, and civic engagement is necessary and something to be proud of on a local level.
America's social fabric is under strain, with rising levels of anxiety, depression, and loneliness affecting millions of citizens. The country's obsession with material wealth and status has led to a decline in community cohesion and social interaction. The Black Lives Matter movement and the #MeToo initiative have highlighted systemic racism and sexism, exposing deep seated inequalities that must be addressed. However, the slow pace of reform and the lack of concrete action have left many feeling frustrated and disenfranchised. Even while these movements were visible and widely followed via social media, it has led to further fracturing and othering of the general populous, making a reactionary response by those not directly involved.
A generational factor is also involved, wealth gaps continue to grow between generations. This not only applies from Baby Boomers (1946-1964) gap to Gen Z (1997-2012) but also in their own age demographics. While Baby Boomers make up for 71.6 million of the population in the United States as of 2019. The age wave theory suggests an economic slowdown when the boomers started retiring during 2007 - 2009. In 2018, though, 29% of people aged 65 - 72 in the United States remained active in the labor force. These 29% while working are doing so on the average income scale of Americans, which is to say, at a poverty level. Often relying on family to care for their needs while also working. The remainder of the 71% of boomers make up for the largest share of wealth, with a combined 66% of the U.S. market. When the Boomer Generation dies, the wealth redistribution will move an estimated 124 trillion dollars to be passed down to their heirs by 2048. This also makes political tensions a generational issue, while younger generations will and do often lean left on the political scale for higher social welfare programs and safety nets, older generations will often lean right. This sudden shift in wealth will also mark potentially the largest shift in political movement to the left.
While the collapse of America is a complex and multifaceted issue, it is clear that the country faces numerous challenges that threaten its economic stability, political cohesion, and social fabric. By examining these factors in depth, we can gain a better understanding of the issues at play and work towards finding solutions to address them. Ultimately, the fate of America will depend on the actions taken by its citizens, policy makers, and leaders. Will we choose to continue down the path of division and inequality, or will we come together to build a more just and equitable society?
The collapse of America is not a dramatic or sudden event but rather a gradual decline over several decades. The country's economic, political, and social issues are interconnected and require a comprehensive solution. To prevent further decline, Americans must come together to address these pressing issues. This will involve a willingness to listen to opposing viewpoints, engage in constructive dialogue, and work towards finding common ground. Some issues that we need to address together and fund reasonably without butchering or bastardizing the standards of are...
By taking action on these issues, Americans can work towards rebuilding their country and creating a brighter future for themselves and future generations. We as a nation have a more diverse and unequal landscape in generational gaps. While consumption of media is no longer the divide our grandparents or some parents may have experienced with the normalization of the internet. Our generational gap is now steered to traditional 'American' experiences, home ownership, job growth, and social development is now stagnated for younger generations due to increasing life expectancy, and rolling wealth growth.
While I cannot say I am an expert on any one particular issue, I tend to think myself a open minded and understanding individual. I do not stake myself on any agenda or group. But the lines are clear, the path is set, if we do not change and reform America. We will fall into despair and inevitable collapse. Our other allied nations face similar problems but due to large sweeping social reform and focus on sustainability for both generations and economic consumption, they tend to ride out hardships better than us here in the United States. We are ever expansive, difficult to change, and often the leading political play maker on the global stage for war. And we simply can be no longer.